By Yuthika Bhargava
According to a report by the Confederation of Indian Industry, India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) can grow from $3 trillion to $9 trillion by 2030 and $40 trillion by 2047 if the country’s working-age population — which is expected to grow by over 100 million people between 2020 and 2030 — is productively employed (CII).
Additionally, the report warned that if India does not create enough jobs and its employees are not well trained for them, its demographic dividend could become a problem. This, it continued, can be accomplished only through adjustments to its education and workforce management policy frameworks.
“Because the job market is skewed toward high-skill labor, India’s ability to create jobs for low-skill labor, who will continue to dominate its workforce,” it stated.
In 2020, India has a working-age population of over 900 million people (67 percent of the total population), which is predicted to grow by another 100 million by 2030, despite a lowering fertility rate. This means that India will account for a whopping 24.3 percent of the incremental global workforce over the next decade, the survey claims.
“The golden period of 30 years between 2020 and 2020-50, during which our working-age population will expand, has the potential to be a significant horizontal enabler of growth, even as the developed world, including China, ages,” the paper says.
The research notes that while India’s literacy rate has increased over the years, its level of vocational training/skilling has remained poor, as seen by the educated population’s high unemployment rate. “Closing the skill gaps in its qualified workforce will be critical, as India is more reliant on human capital than peer countries with a comparable level of economic development,” the report stated, adding that skilling and reskilling will require a coordinated response from the government, industry, and academia, even as COVID continues to cause structural changes in the workplace.
“India’s structural reversal toward agriculture is a hint of a return to subsistence employment. Enhancing safety nets through PM-KISAN and MGNREGA will be key investments in ensuring the protection of small and marginal farmers’ earnings and meeting their basic requirements… However, manufacturing and services will continue to be the two primary growth engines in the future,” it stated.
Source: The Hindu